Back from my hiatus…Well those of you following the news on the aftermath of the Tunisian uprising should be aware of the influence arab states have amongst each other. The relationships between arab nations are based on love, admiration, envy and jealousy, all subliminally driven by historical experiences of triumphs and sorrows, the likes of which only seen amongst families. The current events in Egypt have provoked a spark of angst among the people of Sudan, with the hope of rapidly following the trend. On 30-Jan-2011 , a couragous but premature attempt to mimic the Egyptian demonstrations was rapidly intercepted and extinguished by Sudanese authorities. Initially, when word of the demonstrations spread through the grapevine I couldn’t help but feel a sense of impatience to lend a hand in a historical attempt to reshape my country’s future. Nevertheless, after contemplating the possible outcomes of an uprising in Sudan’s current situation, my initial vehemence was overtaken by caution, and here’s why:
* The current situation in Sudan is extremely fragile; since the results of the South Sudan referrendum have not yet been officially announced (though the expected results are rather obvious) and the issue of Abyei still lingering.
* The imminent dangers of attacks on the capital city are highly plausible; Khartoum has witnessed two security breaches within the last half decade specifically speaking the 1-Aug.-2005 riots following Dr. John Garang’s death and the 2008 Omdurman/Khartoum attacks. Now with such dangers still lurking in the shadows, a demonstration would provide a ripe environment for a major security breach once again.
* Economic catastrophe; If uprisings of similar intensity to those in Egypt erupt simultaneously in various nations within the same region, this would cripple the regional economy drastically and hinder global economic revival following the 2008 economic crisis.Signs of prelimenary economic setbacks in Egypt is already a cause of concern, for the Sudan to follow in similar actions would be a recipe for the region’s demise.
With these hazards in mind, timing an uprising against the current regime is of the upmost importance. Patience is virtue, and waiting for all the dust to settle from the riots in Egypt would provide us with a model to learn from, not to mention in the case the current Egyptian regime falls could see the Sudanese ruling party short of a pivotal ally weakening its current postion. Sudan lets not forget to look before we leap, we have much more to loose in rushing into matters prematurely.
Salam,
SudanEase.
Link: Article on the 30 Jan. 2011 demonstrations.
